Indian share markets start the week by taking cues from both global trends and domestic factors. Let’s break down what traders and investors should watch on Monday.
Table of Contents
1. Positive Start Likely
- Gift Nifty (the 15-minute early indicator for India’s Nifty index) was trading around 25,108, up 1.42 %, on Sunday evening.
- On the previous Friday, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex rose 1.29 %, signalling strong buying momentum .
This suggests that Indian markets may open higher on Monday, as investors carry forward last week’s optimism.
2. Mixed Global Cues
- European bourses closed higher on Friday:
- DAX (Germany) up 0.86 %
- FTSE 100 (UK) up 0.44 %
- CAC 40 (France) up 0.47 %
- STOXX 50 (Eurozone) up 0.75 %
- U.S. futures were slightly in the red—reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of Wall Street’s opening.
When Europe gains and U.S. futures dip, it often points to a mixed start for Asia. Here, though, the strong domestic flows (see next point) may outweigh global caution.
3. Strong Domestic Institutional Support
- Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been major net buyers in June, pumping in over ₹59,800 crore so far .
- Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), by contrast, have shown moderate net selling of about ₹4,034 crore month-to-date.
DIIs’ buying helps anchor the market, reducing the impact of any global sell-offs. This steady home-grown demand is a key reason why markets may hold up well even if foreign flows ease.
4. Key Index Levels to Watch
| Index | Last Close | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Gift Nifty | 25,108 | +1.42 % |
| Nifty 50 | 25,112 | +1.29 % |
| Sensex | 82,408 | +1.29 % |
These levels set the tone for intraday support and resistance. A strong open above these numbers could lead to quick gains, while a drop below may trigger profit-booking.
5. How Global Indices Moved
| Index | Value | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 8,830 | +0.44 % |
| DAX (Germany) | 23,256 | +0.86 % |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,588 | +0.47 % |
| STOXX 50 (EU) | 5,236 | +0.75 % |
Stronger European markets reflect easing concerns over economic growth in Europe and continued corporate earnings optimism.
6. U.S. Futures Snapshot
| Futures | Value | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Futures | 42,100 | -0.21 % |
| NASDAQ Futures | 21,669 | -0.23 % |
| S&P 500 Futures | 5,966 | -0.26 % |
A slight dip in U.S. futures often tempers Asia’s gains, but in this case, it may not derail India’s positive start, thanks to strong domestic buying.
7. Recent FII & DII Activity
| Date | FII Net (₹ crore) | DII Net (₹ crore) |
|---|---|---|
| June 1–20 | -4,034 | +59,836 |
| June 20 | (TBD) | (TBD) |
| June 19 | +934 | +606 |
| June 18 | +891 | +1,091 |
| June 17 | +1,483 | +8,207 |
| June 16 | -2,539 | +5,781 |
(Figures as of 16:22 IST) 5paisa.com
This table shows daily patterns: FIIs have been both buying and selling, but DIIs remain consistent buyers, reinforcing domestic demand.
8. Midcap & Smallcap Rebound
- On June 20, India’s mid-cap and small-cap indices rose nearly 1 %, after three days of declines.
- BEML gained over 1 %, trading near ₹57,747, and the Nifty Smallcap index climbed 0.98 % to 18,190 .
This bounce indicates that investors found valuations attractive at lower levels, and are willing to buy quality mid- and small-cap names.
9. FTSE Russell Rebalancing Effects
Every quarter, FTSE Russell reviews global indices and changes their stock lists. On June 20:
- Hyundai Motor India jumped 4 % to a new high of ₹1,985.
- Waaree Energies surged nearly 8 % to ₹2,879—its biggest one-day rise in two months.
- Swiggy rose 1.4 % to ₹379, NTPC Green Energy climbed 4 %, and Sai Life Sciences gained over 1 % .
FTSE also moved ITC Hotels from large-cap to mid-cap, and added 18 micro-caps (like Mamata Machinery, Suraksha Diagnostic, One MobiKwik Systems) to its micro-cap basket. Such rebalancing can trigger strong price moves, as funds that track these indices buy or sell stocks to match the new weights.
10. BSE Indices Revisions
On June 20, BSE implemented its scheduled index changes:
- Sensex Additions: Trent Ltd. and Bharat Electronics (BEL) joined the 30-stock Sensex.
- Sensex Removals: Nestle India and IndusInd Bank exited.
- BSE 100 Changes: Dixon Technologies, Coforge, Indus Towers replaced Bharat Forge, Dabur India, Siemens.
- BSE Sensex 50 Changes: InterGlobe Aviation, Shriram Finance in; Britannia, Hero MotoCorp out.
- BSE Sensex Next 50 Updates: Britannia, Dixon, Coforge, Hero MotoCorp, Indus Towers in; predecessors out .
Index reconstitutions force large buying or selling by passive funds, often causing short-term volatility and trading opportunities.
11. What Traders Should Do on June 23
- Watch the Open
- If markets open above Friday’s close, follow through with fresh buys.
- If they gap down, look for support near 25,000 on Nifty or 82,000 on Sensex.
- Keep an Eye on Mid/Small Caps
- A continued bounce may signal a shift from large-cap leadership to broader markets.
- FTSE & BSE Stocks
- Newly added names often see extended gains as index-tracking funds buy more.
- Exited stocks may face selling pressure—trade cautiously.
- Follow DII Flows
- Strong DII buying can underpin dips. If DIIs pause, markets may struggle.
- Global Cues
- Watch European close and early U.S. performance for any surprise shifts.
12. Key Support & Resistance Levels
| Index | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,000 / 24,800 | 25,300 / 25,500 |
| Sensex | 82,000 / 81,500 | 82,800 / 83,200 |
Use these levels for intraday trades and stop-loss placement.
Final Thoughts
- Starting Strong: Buoyant DIIs and Friday’s gains set up a positive Monday.
- Global Caution: Slight weakness in U.S. futures means watch the first hour.
- Index Rebalances: FTSE and BSE changes offer specific trade ideas in newly added stocks.
- Breadth Matters: Mid- and small-cap recovery shows broader participation, good for market health.
Keep your risks managed with clear stop-losses, follow the above levels, and use DIIs as a safety net. Happy trading!
